Leading line's growing market share puts the squeeze on competition

According to the latest ocean freight data released by Alphaliner, MSC’s operational capacity is tracking well above 5.2 million TEUs, with market share following suit at 19.9%.

MSC's post-pandemic growth strategy led to its first major victory in January 2022 when the line surpassed Maersk by securing a TEU capacity of 5,614,057.

Maintaining its leading capacity position provided the impetus for MSC to aggressively add to its order book of new builds while simultaneously expanding its used-vessel fleet.

Last August, it was reported that MSC’s order book stood at 126 new builds, ushering in an additional capacity of 1.55 million TEUs.

At that rate, the carrier’s growth is well on track to reach the intended goal of securing a capacity of six million TEUs by 2025.

Looking at Alphaliner’s data, the last time MSC’s market share exceeded its operational capacity was in 2017, suggesting that the uptake of expanding capacity is the correct strategy.

In comparison, Maersk has recorded widely diverging trajectories.

The Danish line’s operated capacity appears to have plateaued since 2018, while its market share of the global liner trade has steadily decreased since it briefly breached the 20% market share threshold of the same year.

Currently, Maersk’s market share is tracking significantly lower than its operational capacity, sitting just above three million TEUs while its existing capacity is 4,193,392.

Data aggregated by Alphaliner since MSC replaced Maersk as the biggest line by order of capacity in January 2022 shows that the Swiss line’s market share has grown from 17% to where it is at the moment.

MSC’s rise as a market leader has been lauded by both Peter Sand and Lars Jensen, lead analysts at freight rate benchmarkers Xeneta, and the founder of ocean cargo consultancy, Vespucci Maritime.

Sand describes MSC’s growth as “spectacular,” while Jensen said the carrier’s market share appears to be organic, supporting its growth strategy of rapid fleet expansion.

However, there is fair reason to believe that Maersk intends to tip the scales back in its favour when it launches the Gemini Corporation with Hapag-Lloyd, effectively adding the latter’s 2,004,030 TEU capacity to its own.

Gemini, which will replace Maersk’s 2M alliance with MSC, aims to improve schedule reliability above 90%, compared to the industry average of 60–70%, a figure that has since dropped to under 50% because of the current Suez Crisis.